“I have a better chance of regrowing hair on my head than Smarty Jones does of winning this race” – FMAD Senior (my father) on the afternoon of May 1, 2004. Hours later, Smarty Jones would win the Kentucky Derby.

The handicapping of any horse race is difficult; the handicapping of the Kentucky Derby is usually impossible. There are just so many intangibles that you rarely see except on the first Saturday in May. For example, most races have a maximum of fourteen horses while the Derby has twenty. There are horses coming in from New York, Florida, California, and Arkansas, not to mention the dastardly locals. In recent years, the use of a synthetic surface at some tracks has made it even more difficult to crack open an educated guess at who will take to Churchill Downs the best.

But with apologies to Yoda, we will try. And let’s start off with a bombshell like my dad gave us all those years ago:

The favorite, Lookin At Lucky, will NOT win the 2010 Kentucky Derby
Lookin At Lucky does have an impressive background and is not surprisingly the 3-1 morning line favorite entering the race. However, there are a lot of negatives when we dig deeper so I’m taking a stand against this animal.

First, five of his six wins have come on synthetic track, something that may one day be the industry standard but right now remains controversial at worst and infamous at best. His only non-synthetic win came by a head-bob against fellow Derby runner Noble’s Promise, a horse of limited skill that finds trouble every time he races.

Second, Lookin At Lucky has drawn the first post position. This means that he will have nineteen horses to his right and won’t be able to get into the kind of stalking position he’ll need to have so he can run his race. He will be stuck and possibly even jostled right from the start of the race. No bueno.

While the favorite has won a good percentage of previous Derbies, this will not be the year of the Lucky.

The Fat Man’s Derby Horse
Standing right next to Lookin At Lucky, in the number two post position, is Ice Box. This horse is trained by Hall Of Famer Nick Zito, the winner of two previous Kentucky Derbies and five Triple Crown races overall. Ice Box pulled a big upset in the Florida Derby after coming from nowhere to nip the second-place horse for a victory. This is my Derby pick.

Despite also having an inside post, Ice Box’s style is to come from far behind so he won’t need to jam up at the start. He can sit back and maneuver around when the time is right, exactly what he did in the Florida Derby.

Ice Box is coming into form just at the right time. He ran the best race of his life in Florida and has taken over a month off to properly rest while continuing to have stellar workouts over the Churchill Downs track.

I’m not one for bloodline analysis but Ice Box isn’t hurting there. His great grandfathers are two of the best horses ever, Seattle Slew and Secretariat. His grandfather, AP Indy, was a superstar of the early 1990’s. Ice Box has the champion gene.

The Bets
Usually we will take a mythical bankroll of $100 and place wagers accordingly HOWEVER since Ulysses Grant is my favorite alcoholic President, we’re adding an extra fifty-ball so I’m giving you $150 in action. The focus of our bets will be keying in on Ice Box with some of the other contenders so we could hit some tasty stuff as well as my usual longshot special. JUST A REMINDER THAT WE HIT THE LONGSHOT SPECIAL WITH DA’TARA IN THE 2008 BELMONT STAKES! I know that FMAD insider Binky remembers as he cashed in.

$40 Win: Ice Box ($40)

$5 Exacta Key: Ice Box 1st and 2nd with Stately Victor, Devil May Care, and Dublin ($30)

$1 Trifecta Key: Ice Box 1st and 2nd with Stately Victor, Devil May Care, Dublin, Dean’s Kitten, and Backtalk ($40)

$20 Win: Dean’s Kitten and Backtalk ($40) – Longshot Specials!

FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY
BET WITH YOUR HEAD, NOT OVER IT